December 31, 2025

Fashion Trends: Analysis and Forecasting – A Comprehensive Summary

By redoyremianz

Top 10 Key Learning Points for Students/Professionals

Fashion Forecasting is Systematic and Integrated: Process begins ~2 years before retail season involving environmental scanning for sociocultural trends, market/consumer research, and color (2 years ahead), textile (18 months ahead), and style (1 year ahead) forecasts requiring collaboration among forecasters, designers, buyers, manufacturers, and retailers
Master Fashion Terminology: Distinguish trend (general direction), style (characteristic mode within category), design (unique combination of elements), fashion (style temporarily adopted by social group); understand differences between fads (short-lived), fashions (moderate acceptance/duration), classics (long-lasting with staying power)
Sociocultural Factors Drive Fashion Change: Trends influenced by zeitgeist (spirit of times) including world events, economic conditions, demographic changes, political climate, subcultural influences, social movements, entertainment, technological innovations, and fashion leaders; understanding these macro and micro trends fundamental to accurate forecasting
Three Fashion Leadership Theories Explain Diffusion: Trickle-down theory (elite to lower classes via differentiation and imitation), trickle-across theory (horizontal within classes via innovators and opinion leaders), trickle-up theory (subcultures to mainstream via unique differentiation); modern fashion reflects all three simultaneously requiring integrated understanding
Consumer Adopter Categories Determine Success: Rogers’ five adopter categories (innovators 2.5%, early adopters 13.5%, early majority 34%, late majority 34%, late adopters 16%) move through adoption process at different rates; understanding characteristics, motivations, roles of each—especially innovators, early adopters, market mavens—crucial for successful product launches and targeted marketing strategies
Five Innovation Attributes Affect Adoption Rate: Relative advantage (perceived benefits—economic, aesthetic, functional, physical, social, psychological, time-saving), compatibility (consistency with values/experiences), complexity (ease of understanding/use), trialability (ability to experiment), observability (visibility to others) all influence adoption speed; fashion firms can strategically enhance these attributes to accelerate adoption
Color Forecasting Leads the Fashion Cycle: Occurs 19-24 months before retail season forming foundation for all subsequent product development; color organizations (CAUS, CMG) and forecasting services (WGSN, The Doneger Group) provide essential trend information; color choices influenced by cultural factors, economic conditions, psychological associations, symbolic meanings varying across cultures
Technology Revolutionizes Forecasting and Diffusion: AI and big data analytics transform trend analysis; consumer research and product development through tools enabling mass customization, crowdsourcing, predictive analytics; social media and digital platforms accelerate diffusion through influencer marketing, consumer-created content, brand-sponsored networking; technologies like PLM, RFID, EDI streamline production and distribution
Sustainability and Social Responsibility Reshape Industry: Growing concerns about environmental impact (textile waste, carbon emissions) and social issues (worker safety, fair labor) influence consumer preferences and industry practices; fast fashion model faces criticism leading to new business models (garment rental, upcycling, “slow fashion”); sustainability considerations increasingly integrated into trend forecasting and product development
Fashion Forecasting Requires Art and Science: Successful forecasting combines creative intuition and aesthetic sensibility with systematic data collection, quantitative analysis (sales data, POS systems, data mining), and qualitative research (focus groups, depth interviews, projective techniques); professionals must synthesize information from diverse sources, recognize patterns in product evolution, translate trends appropriately for specific markets and consumer segments while considering timing, cultural differences, and competitive landscape

Introduction

Fashion is in perpetual motion with new styles continuously being introduced, gaining popularity, reaching maturity, and eventually declining in consumer acceptance
This cyclical process, known as the “fashion cycle,” helps forecasters and retailers anticipate trends and their duration
Fashion Trends: Analysis and Forecasting explores how trends are created, analyzed, and utilized by fashion industry professionals to maintain marketplace competitiveness
The fashion industry employs hundreds of thousands globally across manufacturing, marketing, and retailing sectors, all united by their dependence on trend analysis and forecasting

Since the first edition in 2011, the industry has experienced seismic shifts driven by technology and sustainability concerns:

Social media platforms, particularly Instagram, have become powerful forces for fashion influence, with online influencers challenging traditional gatekeepers like fashion magazine editors
Artificial intelligence enables unprecedented data analysis, harnessing millions of online shoppers’ clicks and likes for trend prediction
Sustainability concerns have intensified – the fast fashion business model has contributed to poor working conditions (exemplified by the 2013 Rana Plaza factory collapse killing 1,134 workers) and environmental waste (one garbage truckload of textile waste landfilled or burned every second globally)
This has sparked fundamental questioning: Can fashion continue changing rapidly given its impact on workers and the environment?

Chapter 1: The Basics of Fashion Trends and Forecasting

Key Terminology and Definitions

Understanding precise fashion terminology is essential for industry professionals:

Trend refers to a general direction or movement (e.g., “trend toward faux furs” means designers showed it, retailers introduced it, consumers are wearing it)
Style is “a characteristic mode of presentation that typifies several similar objects of the same category” – distinctive characteristics within specific categories (miniskirts, pencil skirts, A-line skirts within the skirt category)
Design is “a unique combination of silhouette, construction, fabric, and details that distinguishes a single fashion object from all others”
Fashion is “a style temporarily adopted by a discernible proportion of members of a social group because perceived to be socially appropriate for the time and situation”
Fashion exists beyond apparel—in hairstyles (Jennifer Aniston’s “Rachel” cut), speech patterns (“uptalking”), and behaviors (Facebook usage)

Fashion Categories and Life Cycles

Fashions can be categorized by appeal scope and have different life cycles:

High fashion: New styles accepted by limited innovators/leaders, available in small quantities at high prices
Mass fashion (volume fashion): Styles widely accepted by large groups, produced and sold in large quantities at moderate to low prices, accounting for majority of fashion business sales

Styles vary in acceptance rates and duration with three distinct patterns:

Fashion style: Accepted and diffused at moderate rate, slowly accepted initially, rapidly rising to peak, then gradually declining (e.g., wide-shouldered jackets from mid-1980s to mid-1990s)
Fad: Short-lived style becoming popular rapidly, reaching peak quickly, then suddenly dying out with limited adoption often within specific subcultures (e.g., Crocs shoes, miniskirts with leggings and wide belts in mid-2000s)
Classic: Adopted slowly initially but demonstrates staying power, widely accepted and remaining in fashion for extended periods with slight variations (e.g., Levi’s “501” jeans, trench coats, Chanel suits, pearl necklaces)

Fashion Trends in Context

New fashions are continuously created throughout history with most being evolutionary rather than revolutionary:

Most fashions represent continuous innovations—modifications of previous fashions (e.g., skinny jeans introduced mid-2000s, became narrower through late 2000s, evolved into skin-tight denim leggings by 2009, began declining by late 2010s)
Revolutionary changes generally result from major social or world events (e.g., Christian Dior’s New Look after WWII represented radical change from wartime suits to billowy skirted dresses)

World Events significantly impact fashion:

WWI resulted in women entering workforce, adopting practical, easy-to-wear clothing; Gabrielle Chanel introduced simple jersey outfits in 1916
After 9/11, patriotic fashion flourished while consumers avoided trendy expensive items, causing luxury market sales to drop significantly
COVID-19 pandemic (spring 2020) drastically affected consumer behavior: unemployment soared to 23.9%, pants sales decreased 13% but pajama sales increased 143%, loungewear and athleisure sales soared, e-commerce sales increased 49%

Economic Conditions drive consumer behavior:

During pessimistic conditions, consumers curb luxury consumption (1929 stock market collapse led to worldwide depression impacting US and French fashion industries; 2008 recession caused consumers to turn to inexpensive brands and basic styles)

Subcultural Influences create unique styles that diffuse to mainstream:

“Black Is Beautiful” movement (1960s) led to widespread adoption of Afro hairstyles expressing black pride and new sense of identity
Punk fashion (mid-1970s UK) among unemployed youth and students reflected anti-establishment sentiment with leather jackets, metal studs, Doctor Martens boots, Mohican hairstyles
Hip-hop fashion originated in 1970s New York, became increasingly popular through commercialization by Nike, Reebok, Tommy Hilfiger; artists started own brands (Sean John by Diddy, Rocawear by Jay-Z, Yeezy by Kanye West)

Social Changes influence fashion evolution:

After WWI, garçonne look (boyish, youthful style with men’s jackets, ties, short hair) symbolized progressive women pursuing independence
1980s power suit with exaggerated shoulder pads displayed women’s workplace status
Recent cultural movements toward gender diversity shifted fashion away from fixed male/female binaries; genderqueer, non-binary and trans models raised awareness; brands like Gucci, Burberry, Tommy Hilfiger combined men’s and women’s collections offering androgynous styles

The Framework for Fashion Change

The Fashion Cycle includes four major stages demonstrating product life:

Introduction Stage: New style introduced with limited supply; designer brands sell to upscale boutiques; innovative, fashion-conscious consumers willing to pay high prices try style
Growth Stage: Competition increases as style gains exposure and popularity; original styles modified for mass fashion at lower prices; sales sharply increase
Maturity Stage: Usually longest period; competition intensifies, prices drop to appeal to mass market using cheaper materials and labor; products available in discount stores
Decline Stage: Styles going out of fashion, losing popularity; sales and profits rapidly decrease; retailers put remaining styles on sale to eliminate obsolete stock

Three Fashion Leadership Theories explain fashion change and diffusion:

Trickle-Down Theory (Veblen 1899, Simmel 1904, McCracken 1985):

Fashion changes result from needs to maintain class differentiation; elite class displays status and wealth through conspicuous consumption including new fashions
Two primary forces: differentiation (elite class differentiating itself by adopting new styles) and imitation (lower classes imitating upper class)
McCracken described this as upward chase and flight pattern—lower classes seek elite status markers (chase), elite moves to new styles (flight)
Criticisms: Oversimplifies contemporary social system created by various factors (occupation, education, income); today’s elite may intentionally avoid status symbols (parody display, conspicuous counter-consumption)

Trickle-Across Theory (King 1963, also called mass-market or simultaneous-adoption theory):

New styles trickle across horizontally within classes rather than vertically across classes
Consumers within each class freely choose from variety of styles according to personal taste
Fashion information flows across social classes or groups sharing similar fashion preferences
Consumer acceptance most likely among fashion leaders (innovators and fashion opinion leaders) within social class
In modern society, consumers in various classes simultaneously exposed to numerous fashion information sources through mass media and internet
Fast fashion retailers (Zara, H&M) introduce less expensive knock-offs of high-fashion designs weeks after runway presentations, accelerating diffusion

Trickle-Up Theory (Field 1970, also called status float phenomenon):

Upper classes imitate fashions of lower classes; new styles or status symbols float up status pyramid
Subcultures create unique styles to differentiate themselves from other subcultures and mainstream
Examples: hippie subculture styles (long hair, peasant blouses, jeans) influenced mainstream; blue jeans originally worn by miners became widely popular as casual apparel
Harajuku street fashion in Tokyo inspired numerous fashion ideas for Japanese and non-Japanese designers

Integrated Theory (Behling 1985) combines trickle-down and trickle-up components:

Median population age determines who will be role models and consequently fashion change direction
When role models from older, affluent class, fashion trickles down; when society dominated by younger class, fashion trickles up
Speed of fashion process influenced by disposable income amount—good economy speeds change, bad economy slows it

Recurring Fashions: Some fashions are revived after certain periods:

Motorcycle leather jackets recreated since late 1920s; leggings returned to fashion in 2005 after declining in late 1990s
Coco Chanel reintroduced Chanel suit in 1955; Karl Lagerfeld reinvented it in 1982
Laver’s (1973) theory suggests fashion change explained by shifting erogenous zones—different body parts emphasized by veiling one part and unveiling another (e.g., late 1990s/early 2000s emphasized women’s midriffs reflecting fitness lifestyle emphasis)

Chapter 2: Consumers’ Role in Fashion Adoption

The Innovation Adoption Process

Beal, Rogers, and Bohlen’s (1957) five-stage model explains innovation adoption for consumer products and fashion trends:

Awareness Stage: Consumer becomes aware of new offering but little may be known about it
Interest Stage: Consumer’s curiosity piqued, leading to efforts gathering more information; consumer wonders if offering suits personal needs
Evaluation Stage: Consumer processes gathered information, mentally thinking about new offering for personal situation (“Would this work with what I already own?”)
Trial Stage: Consumer physically tests new offering to see if reality matches expectations (tries products in store to determine if style flattering and comfortable)
Adoption Stage: Consumer concludes they like new trend and uses product; if friends evaluate positively, consumer moves to adoption; if negatively, consumer rejects

Five Innovation Attributes Affecting Adoption Rate

According to Rogers (2003), five perceived attributes of innovation affect its rate of adoption:

1. Relative Advantage: “The degree to which an innovation is perceived as better than the idea it supersedes”

Greater perceived relative advantage leads to more rapid adoption
Innovation can provide economic, status-related, aesthetic, functional, physical, social, psychological, and time-saving benefits
Example: Fleece jackets over shearling provide economic advantage (less expensive), physical comfort (lightweight for warmth), time-saving (dry quickly), psychological/ecological benefits (match beliefs about not harming animals, made from recycled fibers) but may lack social benefit (not high status)
Fashion firms can alter fashion elements to provide relative advantage (e.g., Patagonia’s Capilene T-shirt offers fashion colors plus moisture-wicking fabric and 50+ UPF sun protection)

2. Compatibility: “The degree to which an innovation is perceived as being consistent with existing values, past experiences, and needs of potential adopters”

When innovation seems familiar or consistent with previously accepted ideas, adoption accelerated
Example: Saudi Arabian designers like Arwa Al Banawi create modern styles reflecting cultural traditions—incorporating traditional keffiyah patterns and loose abaya silhouette while offering contemporary pantsuits
Innovation names may affect perceived familiarity (e.g., “mom jeans” promotion in 2018 capitalized on 1990s origin familiarity for those seeking retro fashion)

3. Complexity: “The degree to which an innovation is perceived as difficult to understand and use”

More complex innovations experience slower adoption
May not be as important for fashion products (usually not hard to understand) but becomes bigger issue with electronics and nanotechnology addition to apparel
“Smart garments” incorporating technologies have applications from mobile phone charging to safety, medical, sports (e.g., Nike’s HyperAdapt 1.0 with self-lacing system)

4. Trialability: “The degree to which an innovation may be experimented with on a limited basis”

If consumer can easily try innovation, adoption speed enhances; particularly important to first adopters
Firms offer various trialability forms: brick-and-mortar stores allow trying through fitting rooms or “magic mirrors”; online retailers use technology (Amazon partnered with L’Oréal offering try-on technology for lipsticks)
Best if trialability takes place in actual-use situation (Patagonia sets up climbing walls at competitions; Chanel’s makeup studios allow testing under different lighting conditions)

5. Observability: “The degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others”

Easier for others to see innovation adopted, more rapid adoption (mobile phone observability likely affected rapid worldwide adoption)
Fashion firms enhance observability through product placement (branded products as props in films, TV shows, video games), product integration (products integral to storyline), lifestyle integration (pop-up shops creating brand experiences)
Firms send complimentary products to sports/entertainment celebrities and social media influencers hoping for positive reviews; nearly 19% of Americans purchased product because influencer promoted it versus 10% for celebrity endorsements
Social media revolutionized observability: brands strategically target ads based on browsing history; use short video ads (Stories); depend on consumer posts to spread word and images

Consumer Adopter Categories

Rogers’ innovation adopter categories show different adoption rates:

Innovators (2.5%): First to adopt innovation, sometimes creators when trends begin on streets; characterized as colorful, contemporary, venturesome, risk takers
Early adopters (13.5%): Second fastest category; integral part of social network; make trends started by innovators more palatable to mainstream
Early majority (34%): Adopt innovations before average consumer; may deliberate over adoption; connect early adopters and late majority
Late majority (34%): Try innovation after average member has; approach with skepticism; have below average social status, limited financial resources
Late adopters/laggards (16%): Last to adopt; show little opinion leadership; have lower social status, very limited financial resources; must be certain innovation successful before purchasing

Innovators: Characteristics, Motivations, and Roles

Only 2.5% of all adopters; frequently young, well educated, have financial resources to absorb loss, very social, in close contact with product innovation sources
Fashion innovators have higher need for both uniqueness and social acceptance; actively seek information from variety of media sources; shop for recreation, adventure, new ideas; not price sensitive; tend to make impulse purchases
Innovativeness tied to opinion leadership—”degree to which individual is able to influence other individuals’ attitudes or overt behavior informally”
Play important role as “spark” for trends within groups; often source; their advice valued and influences thoughts and behaviors of other consumers
Fashion firms may assemble innovator panels to provide initial ideas and assess prototypes; Zara coalesces in-store consumer requests to identify new styles
Firms may identify innovators based on past consumer patterns using technology to find buying pattern associations

Early Adopters: Characteristics, Motivations, and Roles

Make up 13.5% of consumers; not perceived as outcasts like innovators; integral part of social network
Typically higher socioeconomic status and education level; less dogmatic; greater ability to deal with uncertainty and risk; more socially active; greater exposure to media; more likely to have compulsive buying tendencies
Make trends more palatable by translating trend into more acceptable form for mainstream and reducing perceived risk (potential negative consequences consumer fears)
If innovators are “spark,” early adopters are “kindling” to ignite trend among early majority
Have highest degree of opinion leadership; frequently knowledgeable about product category, good communicators; respected by large group; perceived as successful in making right calls; become role models
Description matches behaviors of online influencers (Alexa Chung, Chiara Ferragni); as early adopters and opinion leaders, spread word offline and online, provide trusted seal of approval, reduce perceived risks

Market Mavens: Characteristics, Motivations, and Roles

“Individuals who have information about many kinds of products, places to shop, and other facets of markets, and initiate discussions with consumers and respond to requests for market information”
Unlike opinion leaders (focus on specific product category), market mavens have broader shopping-related knowledge base
Diffusers not only of product information but also marketing mix information (cheapest price, stores carrying product, best service)
Embraced online communication—gather information, share information and ads, initiate discussions, respond to questions through online channels
Socially motivated—feel obligation and receive pleasure from helping others; their knowledge, social skills, lack of ulterior motive augment impact
Seen as having stronger influence than opinion leaders in marketplace
Value conscious; distribute coupons; take friends shopping; connected with shopping for enjoyment and need for uniqueness
Contribute greatly to consumer word-of-mouth communications; important for smaller firms dependent on word-of-mouth rather than large advertising budgets
Can be found worldwide; about 50% of US population knows someone matching description; percentage likely higher now considering proclivity to share through online channels

Chapter 3: The Process and Methods of Fashion Trend Analysis and Forecasting

The Fashion Forecasting Process

Fashion forecasting process begins about two years in advance of retailing season with three components:

Environment Scanning:

Scan for current and near-future trends in economic, political, social, and cultural arenas
Understanding long-term direction of society (megatrends) also helpful
Information analyzed, interpreted, and synthesized
Professionals observe what’s happening both instinctively and consciously

Market Research:

Focuses on consumers, competing companies, and sales records
Research consumer demographics, lifestyles, values, attitudes, and behaviors
Consumer segments have diversified into many separate market niches
Monitor activities of competing companies operating in similar product categories
Analyze previous sales records to establish sales trends within firm

Product Forecasting:

Themes developed based on predicted sociocultural trends
Evolution of products within/across categories analyzed to predict next trends
Color, textile, and style trends researched via runway collections, trade shows, fashion magazines, street fashions, social media
Professional services monitoring trends are important information source
Color palettes decided about two years ahead; textile forecasting begins eighteen months in advance; style forecasts about one year in advance
Given current short fashion cycle, shorter forecasting cycle becoming necessary

Two Types of Fashion Forecasting

Short-term Forecasting:

Predicts trends one to two years in future
Focuses on new products (color, textile, style)
Timeline recently shortened due to accelerated fashion change for fast fashion

Long-term Forecasting:

Predicts trends five or more years in future
Focuses on fashion industry directions (materials, design, production, retailing)
Contributes to firm’s development strategies
Helps make decisions related to repositioning or extending product lines, initiating new businesses, reviving brand images

The Sociocultural Context (Zeitgeist)

Changing Economy has fundamental influence on consumer demand:

Inflation rate and personal incomes determine buying power
When economy doing well, fashion may be extravagant; when doing poorly, consumers prefer classic or functional styles
2008 recession: luxury fashion segment sales dropped 11.6%; consumers turned toward designer affinity lines for recession-chic stores and classic pieces
COVID-19 pandemic: unemployment soared to 23.9%; forecasters predicted purchases driven by necessity and emotion; pants sales decreased 13% but pajama sales increased 143%; comfortable home clothes sales soared

Demographic Trends affect fashion:

Growing older consumer population increasingly important segment
Older models frequently appear in commercials (Lauren Hutton at 76 walked Valentino runway; Judi Dench at 85 appeared on British Vogue cover)
Understanding generational differences important to marketing fashion items effectively
“Aging” trend is global phenomenon

Current Events, Politics, and World News have major impact:

Opening of trade relations with China inspired designers to adopt traditional Chinese silhouettes
Past fashion for camouflage prints and military wear reflected climate of war
Nearly decade of Americans fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan led to military influences in fashion

Cultural Diversity affects fashion by introducing ethnic styles:

Asian movies influenced preference for Asian designs in fashion
Jackson’s Kimono exhibition (2020) highlighted kimono’s influence on fashion from John Galliano to Alexander McQueen
Western fashion often borrowed from African culture (Louis Vuitton’s SS 2017 campaign used safari and tribal prints)

Arts have major impact on fashion:

Major art and historic costume exhibitions influence trends (2001 Jacqueline Kennedy exhibit spurred interest in 1960s ladylike ensemble dressing)
Monet, van Gogh, Matisse paintings can influence seasonal color palettes and textile patterns
2018: Vans teamed with Van Gogh Museum using artist’s paintings imagery for shoes
Calvin Klein partnered with Andy Warhol Foundation for capsule collection
Collaborations between brands and artists elevate both entities

Technological Innovation affects consumer demand:

Internet ubiquity and fashion globalization enabled firms to produce immediate designer knockoffs, accelerating trend cycle
Almost continuous innovations in textile and apparel production: new fiber technology, fabric finishes, wearable apparel with enhanced functions, mass customization, body-scanning, digital textile printing, seamless knitting, laser-cutting, 3D printing
2014: Gap collaborated with Visionaire for limited-edition color-changing T-shirts made with UV-sensitive ink
Budapest-based designer Judit Karpati’s Chromosonic project uses Arduino to create ever-changing color patterns when sound pushed through fabric

Megatrends (Long-term Forecasts) identify trends five years or more out:

Help companies evaluate current business practices, reposition products, formulate strategic plans
Consider shifts in demographics, changes in industry/market structure, differences in consumer interests, breakthroughs in technology/science, changes in economic picture
John Naisbitt (Megatrends, 1982) coined term “megatrend” referring to major societal shifts having definite impact on individual lifestyles; identified ten including move toward information-based economy, dual compensations of high-tech and high-touch products, shift to global economy
Faith Popcorn (cofounded Brain Reserve 1974) known for The Popcorn Report (1991), Clicking (1997), EVEolution (2000); argued trends are predictive because start small, gradually gather momentum; best way to pick up on early indications is understanding evolution of current trends

Theme Development Process

Fashion Snoops example illustrates systematic theme development:

Heart-led methodology identifies true emotional drivers of change to connect dots between cultural influence, business, and design opportunities
Steps: Identify (identify macro and micro trends), Track (track media with proprietary AI), Connect (inspire innovations by connecting macro trends to consumer sentiments and design direction)
Macro trends are broad sociocultural trends inspiring business direction
Micro trends are narrower, specific sociocultural trends useful to inspire for specific markets, consumer segments, or products
Example: SS 2022 forecasting—five macro trends identified (“Superhuman,” “Eco-virtuous,” “A wake up,” “Digital deep end,” “The clash”)
“Superhuman” referenced idea that “humans will seek wellness perfection by striking balance between ensuring health-tech revolution while remaining true to our human core”
Six microtrends developed within “Superhuman”: “Reset,” “Brain pharmacy,” “Ancient remedies,” “Health hacking,” “Sexual intelligence,” “New healthcare systems”
Key micro trends pulled out to build and understand consumer sentiments; specific sentiment color and design aesthetic developed
Runway collections analyzed to confirm or revise predicted trends using proprietary AI

Product Forecasting Details

Color Forecasting (conducted about two years in advance):

Color identified as design factor most influencing consumer purchasing decisions
Brand image highly defined in terms of color; must be cohesive and evolve seasonally
Color evokes symbolic associations; marketers use psychological power of colors (red=passion/strength, blue=trust/loyalty, green=growth/hope, black=formality/glamour)
Cultural differences in color preference affect consumer choice (Americans like colors cleaner, brighter; Europeans prefer darker, deeper; black=mourning in West, white=funeral in some Eastern countries)
Color cycles run in predictable sequences; seven-year period identified as lapse between preference for cool and warm tones
Color trends usually directly linked with world state; in times of uncertainty, consumers most comfortable with colors reminding of familiar things
Decision about seasonal color palette is basis for dyeing yarns and designing fabric for all line styles

Key Color Forecasting Sources:

Forecasters attend trade shows and fashion shows in major fashion cities (Paris, Milan, London, New York)
Premiere Vision recognized as most popular and important exhibition; acts as color filter for fashion industry
Top designers present new collections twice yearly in runway shows attended by retail buyers, fashion editors, forecasters, designers worldwide
Fashion professionals visit designer showrooms, shop in fashion cities, monitor street fashions
Subscribe to trade publications, magazines, newspapers, online newsletters; social media great source
Color Association of United States (CAUS): Nonprofit organization founded 1915; members serve on committees meeting twice yearly to select 24 trend colors for apparel, 44 for interiors, dominating market for next two years
Color Marketing Group (CMG): Founded 1961; over 400 members from 20+ countries meet at two international conferences to identify color trends; develop forecast 19 months before selling season
Trend forecasting companies (The Doneger Group, WGSN) provide comprehensive trend forecasts including color and fabric directions 18 months prior to selling season
Color systems like Pantone keep permanent library of dyed colors; distribute color cards as standards

Textile Forecasting (begins eighteen months ahead):

Fiber producers and mills start projecting textile trends 18 months ahead of retailing season
Task of researching seasonal fabrics goes on simultaneously with color research
Many services providing color forecasts also offer fabric forecasts alerting developers to new technology, fibers, blends, finishes
Numerous domestic and international fabric and yarn shows held yearly: Premiere Vision, European Textile Select Show, Expofil, International Fashion Fabric Exhibition, Interstoff, Pitti Immagine, Los Angeles International Textile Show, Yarn Fair International
Fabric vendors at shows frequently have prototype garments made to help sell newest offerings
Shows feature areas where trend forecasters share seasonal predictions; seminars and speakers alert developers to trends and new technology
Trade publications and magazines important sources (ECOTEXTILE, Textile Exchange Communications, Sourcing Journal, Women’s Wear Daily)
Fabric libraries and printed fabrics are other sources; many product developers hire graphic designers to develop exclusive prints
As color palette forecasted for future season translated to textiles, fabric’s texture, depth, geometry often determine specific color’s usefulness

Style Forecasting (begins about one year ahead):

Forecasters and product developers begin forecasting apparel styles about one year ahead of retailing season
Inspiration for silhouettes and style details comes from variety of sources: attend fashion shows and trade events, review fashion news from online/print materials and broadcast sources
Subscribe to design resources, shop and interpret market, meet with suppliers
New, innovative styles and shopping areas featured in magazines (Women’s Wear Daily, Vogue, Harper’s Bazaar, Collezioni Donna, In Style) and industry newsletters
Social media sites (Instagram, Pinterest, Tumblr, YouTube), blogs, vlogs very useful
Sources sifted for core concepts or trends; trends translated to fit company’s identity and customers’ lifestyles and preferences
Elements assembled into actionable forecast for line development by product category, price point, retail concept
Trend services provide reports with immediate, in-depth information about collections; work quickly publishing on internet
Many offer personalized services (product design, brand development, market research, consumer analyses)
Timing is critical element of fashion: Right fashion introduced too soon quickly turns into loss; carrying silhouette or color beyond fashion cycle equally costly

Chapter 4: The Role of Fashion Industry Professionals in Trend Development and Forecasting

Developers

Developers are professionals involved in product creation from initiating ideas through production completion:

In fashion industry include apparel designers, product developers, colorists, textile artists
Fashion trend forecasters also considered developers because contribute ideas to creative process

Trend Forecasting Services:

Color Association of United States (CAUS): Nonprofit, founded 1915; first forecast 1917; members meet twice yearly to select 24 trend colors for apparel, 44 for interiors; members receive forecast package (color samples, written report, CD of inspiration images)
Color Marketing Group (CMG): Founded 1961; international nonprofit; several hundred color professionals from various industries participate in workshops; develop forecast 19 months before selling season
The Doneger Group: Founded 1946; major source of global market trends and merchandising strategies; Doneger Creative Services (DCS) offers color and fabric directions 18 months prior; provides online reports and images
Worth Global Style Network (WGSN): Established 1998; world’s leading web-based forecasting company; over 250 creative and editorial staff; visit 800+ blogs daily, 130 trade shows annually, photograph stores in 95 countries; provides in-depth analysis 24 months ahead; offers searchable database of 25 million images and royalty-free CADs

Data-Driven Analytics Firms use algorithm and AI technologies:

Each online interaction becomes unique data point; firms automate analysis using algorithms predicting what consumers will want based on trends
Key firms: Lyst (global search platform monetizing data of 10+ million monthly searches), EDITED (tracks over 2 billion SKUs from 90,000+ brands), Google Trends (offers data and analysis of search trends), WGSN Instock (monitors 250+ million SKUs across 15,000 brands), Trendalytics (analyzes 4+ million SKUs)

Trade Shows are important inspirational sources:

Most held twice yearly in Europe and United States
Variety of yarn and fabric companies present products in one location for short period
Attendees: executives, designers, forecasters, fashion press
Top yarn shows: Premiere Vision Yarns, Pitti Immagine Filati
Fabric shows: Premiere Vision, Ideacomo, Milano Unica
Garment shows: MAGIC, Canton trade show, Kingpins (denim specialist)
Premiere Vision probably best-known; held 11-12 months prior to selling season; about 80 panel members work on color ranges 18 months ahead; 650-700 exhibitors from 30 countries; about 50,000 professionals from 110 countries visit

Gatekeepers

Gatekeepers are professionals who filter information overflow, influence products finally offered to consumers:

Not paid to promote products by producing companies
Include buying offices, retail buyers, fashion magazine editors, bloggers, influencers

Buying Offices and Retail Buyers:

Almost every large retailer affiliated with independent buying office in United States
Buying offices assist in buying process when buyers cannot physically be in New York during fashion weeks
The Doneger Group largest independent apparel buying office; Carol Hoffman division serves women’s specialty retailers; staff continuously informs clients of fashion, price, new vendors; arranges meetings; evaluates vendors’ lines; identifies new and important items
Retail buyers have ultimate responsibility for selecting new fashion merchandise; consider target customers’ preferences and future preferences, not buyer’s personal preferences

Fashion Magazine Editors and Influencers:

Vogue (first published 1892) introduces and reviews new fashion trends, products, designer lines for wide audience; editors introduce hot items, promote hottest new designers, speak to consumer trends
September 2019 issue showcased “20 for 2020” (twenty emerging designers to watch)
Women’s Wear Daily editors once important gatekeepers; publication reviews and publicizes designers’ new collections each season
Bloggers emerged in mid-2000s as new gatekeeper type; allowed targeted, near instant connection with audience sharing personal style and observations authentically
Today early bloggers now industry veterans termed “influencers”; many became brand owners themselves
Chiara Ferragni (The Blonde Salad) collaborates with brands, promotes successful garment and footwear labels, shared with 18 million Instagram followers
So-called influencer economy: top influencers earning over $100,000 per sponsored post; 2017 influencer Arielle Charnas’s collaboration with Nordstrom drove over $1 million in sales in single day

Sales Forecasting as Gatekeeping Process:

Zara’s 600 designers create 50,000+ new designs annually; 10,000 selected for production
To select final designs, executives and designers consider preferences of target customers, fashion trends, most importantly salability (how much profit designs could generate)
Sales forecasting for fashion merchandise challenging because most items new, highly seasonal, short life cycle
Achieved by analyzing sales history, using trend forecasting services, talking to vendors and experts
Time-series analysis: Executives review previous sales data to see patterns (annual pattern of increasing/decreasing sales corresponding with seasons)
Correlation and regression techniques: Statistical analyses examining whether relationship exists between two variables
Vendors important information sources; proprietary information about marketing plans will significantly influence sales
Executives may discuss ideas with in-house experts or groups of executives, salespeople, outside experts
Point-of-sales (POS) data essential information source for forecasting future sales down to SKU (stock-keeping unit); captured by POS scanner as transactions occur
Transaction data tell which trends being accepted by consumers, which not; help executives determine when and how much to reorder or when to reduce prices
**Electronic data interchange (EDI)**: Computer-to-computer exchange of business information; sales information shared with distribution centers and vendors; helps control inventory
Data mining: Tracks variety of consumer and transaction information, identifies relationships using statistical techniques; used in decision making and forecasting
Data warehouse: Aggregation of all consumer information (shopping behaviors, demographics, sales history, promotions, pricing); can be accessed at various levels and dimensions
Through analyzing data, companies have opportunity for micro marketing—targeting products to particular consumer segment or even individual customer

Promoters

Promoters are professionals who emphasize and enhance aesthetic product’s value through verbal communication and/or environment design:

Paid to promote particular products
Include advertisers, fashion photographers, fashion show coordinators, marketing specialists, stylists, brand representatives, visual merchandisers, social media influencers

Advertisers, Stylists, and Visual Merchandisers:

Advertisers/advertising agencies provide services promoting products using various channels (TV, radio, billboards, social media campaigns)
Advertising increases observability and familiarity, facilitating consumer’s innovation adoption process
Social media influencers often key to promotion (Kanye West sent Yeezy shoes to celebrity friends who promoted on social media)
Advertising used to promote trend colors or styles and communicate brand story connecting to macro trends in consumer lifestyles and values
Fashion stylists select and coordinate apparel and accessories for store catalogs, print ads, websites, magazine articles, commercials, celebrity clients
Usually work with team of creative members (photographers, makeup artists, hairdressers, magazine editors)
Many social media influencers play important role as both stylists and image disseminators
Visual merchandising one of most important activities supporting selling of fashion merchandise; accentuates merchandise, illustrates concepts through appropriate use of mannequins, lighting, colors, props, signage
Well-executed visual merchandising attracts customers, encourages them to examine and try merchandise, increases sales
Can be used to introduce new products and fashion trends, educate consumers about how new items can be worn and accessorized
Understanding trends of season essential for visual merchandisers

Forecasting as Integrated Process

General activities throughout textile and apparel industry illustrate integrated forecasting schedule:

Color forecasting agencies (CAUS, CMG) present new color trends 19-24 months prior to selling season
Other trend forecasting companies (The Doneger Group, WGSN) develop comprehensive forecasts 12-18 months prior
Fiber and yarn manufacturers compile color forecasts in shade cards; present new textile products at yarn trade shows (Expofil, Pitti Immagine Filati) 10-15 months before selling season
Fabric and knitwear companies create colors in fabric development based on forecasts; present products in fabric shows (Premiere Vision) 11-12 months ahead
Apparel manufacturers and retailers develop merchandise year in advance; designers or buyers use trend forecasting materials to develop interpretation for market
Apparel designers and executives visit fabric trade shows for inspiration, learning new trends, finding new sources
New apparel styles presented in garment shows; buyers visit shows and/or vendors during fashion weeks to buy merchandise based on fashion forecasts
Buyers order merchandise 2-6 months before selling season

Variations on these timeframes include:

Fast fashion business model: Company operates within compressed timeframes to bring new styles to market in weeks
“See now, buy now” model: Direct-to-consumer model where consumers order direct from runway; requires brand to operate two different production calendars (traditional wholesale timelines and immediate delivery); popularized by Burberry and Ralph Lauren

Chapter 5: Consumer and Industry Accelerators of Fashion Innovations and Diffusion

The Style-Confident Consumer

Fashion trends changing more rapidly partly due to changes in consumer expectations and confidence in making style-related decisions:

Consumers depend less on quality to differentiate between products (many quality products readily available)
Today’s consumer depends on aesthetic appeal to differentiate between products or brands
Reflects aesthetic imperative of today’s consumer—aesthetic appeal drives consumption decisions related to bodies, products, environments
Growing number of businesses cater to making people, places, things look good (burgeoning growth in cosmetic surgeons, nail salons, home improvement stores)
Consumer surrounded by abundant physical examples emphasizing aesthetics and copious media sources with design information (TV programs, social media)
Having access to vast amounts of design and trend information promotes development of style-confident consumers
These consumers synthesize information from numerous sources, engage in pluralistic aesthetic where personal style determined by individual
This pluralistic aesthetic helps drive innovation and adoption but creates challenge for forecasters (no single clear trend—simultaneous trends occur)

Creative Class (Florida 2002) supports idea of style-confident consumer:

Growing economic class where creativity is key factor in professional roles
Goes beyond designers, artists, writers to include scholars, scientists, entrepreneurs, computer scientists, engineers
Only 33% of US workforce but Creative sector accounts for one-half of all US wages earned
Caused profound shift in values toward self-expression, individuality, creativity instead of conformity
Manifested in growing preference for design innovations expressing individuality and creativity
Creative Class has desire and money to buy innovations—accounts for 70% of discretionary spending by US consumers
Style-confident consumers have cornucopia of fashion-related information at fingertips and financial resources to adopt innovations

Industry Trends Serving Style-Confident Consumer

Mass Market/Designer Brand Collaborations:

Style-confident consumers expect high-price-point fashion innovations to diffuse quickly to lower price points
Helps drive product innovation—lower-price-point designs change quickly to keep up with high-fashion changes
Number of designers partnering with mass merchants to provide more affordable, limited edition lines
Target celebrated 20 years of these partnerships; growing number of mass merchants (Carrefour, H&M, Kohl’s, Walmart) formed similar collaborations
However, these partnerships may damage prestige of luxury/designer brands
Target’s 175 collaborations with established luxury brands and rising star designers revitalized retailer’s image, “helped establish it as higher-end alternative to competitors”
Karl Lagerfeld, Stella McCartney, Versace, Balmain partnered with H&M; Vera Wang collaborated with Kohl’s

Fast Fashion:

Within mass-market category accelerated product innovation through practice of producing affordable, on-trend styles available for short period time
Zara produces more styles (roughly 12,000/year) rather than more quantities per style
Style is on sales floor for up to four weeks, then replaced with new product
Designing for and marketing to style-confident consumers may be effective competitive advantage evidenced by global success of Zara

Garment Rental Subscription Services:

Services (Stitch Fix, Rent-The-Runway) regularly send subscriber curated collection based on stated preferences and purchase history
Customer determines which to rent, which to return
US specialty apparel stores (Banana Republic, Bloomingdale’s, Urban Outfitters, Express, Ann Taylor) recently added retail subscription services
Whereas consumers buy workhorse basic pieces, prefer to rent trendier pieces
Service offers attributes of trialability (consumer can try before purchasing) and compatibility (recommendations based on preferences and past selections)
Over 2000 subscription services exist; 15% of online shoppers used subscription service

Experiential Marketing:

Consumers expect experiential marketing as part of consumption process entailing memorable experiences where consumer can interact with brand
Pop-up retail/pop-up shop: Temporary stores and events open for limited time; can be opened within major retailer or in unexpected locations
Consists of well-designed environments offering brand image-reinforcing experiences, consumer engagement, hands-on experiences to try new products
Allows consumer to learn about relative advantage through communication with brand representatives and try products firsthand (trialability)
Depends heavily on word-of-mouth or nontraditional advertising outlets adding to appeal
Fashion change agents purchase exclusive products, provide positive word-of-mouth accelerating diffusion process
Luxury brands (Hermès, Dolce & Gabbana, Coach) created separate spaces to engage younger consumers—spaces where guests hang out and enjoy rather than shop
Goals: create brand community, inspire brand loyalty, acquire new customers, engage current customers with sophisticated and educational events
Pop-up shops may also provide input to innovation development process by gathering consumer input following trial of new product

Industry Technology Trends Accelerating Product Innovation

Business-to-Business Partnerships:

RFID chip technology delivers in-store SKU-level sales information to manufacturers helping reduce excess inventory, manage production facilities efficiently, ensure products replenished in stores
Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) solutions (like LF Corp’s use of Dassault Systemes’ 3DEXPERIENCE platform) allow real-time collaboration, manage development processes and design data
LF Corp shortened delivery lead times from 5-6 months to 45-60 days by integrating PLM with Merchandise Planning System

Business-to-Consumer Partnerships:

Digital technology changes assumptions because of rise of multipath communication—consumers communicate back to firm and among themselves simultaneously
Technology facilitated creation of strong, reciprocal relationships between businesses and consumers and among consumers
Consumers no longer simply adopt what others created; now have hand in creation of innovation as innovation co-creator

Mass Customization:

Hybrid of mass production and customization; “mass production of individually customized goods and services”
48% of consumers surveyed under age 24 want technology in stores allowing them to customize products
Not widely available for many apparel brands because of high cost and needed overhaul of production processes
Some brands (Nike, Oakley, Timberland, Timbuk2) employed mass customization
Co-design variation: Product’s design based on consumer’s selections from range of design feature offerings
Customer with aid of CAD technology creates individualized product design from company’s options
Innovation and evaluation processes simultaneous; consumer evaluates innovation as takes shape before eyes
Individual co-designed innovations may not progress through consumer adopter categories as mass-produced products do

Crowdsourcing:

“Phenomenon of corporations creating goods, services and experiences in close cooperation with experienced and creative consumers, tapping into their intellectual capital”
Different from mass customization (occurs after companies decided which product options will allow consumers to modify)
End result may be totally new designs or modifications to current products
Innovative products readied for mass production, undergo collective diffusion process
Number of brands (Express, White House Black Market) begun gathering customer input in developing future collections
Smaller firms (Threadless, Fluevog, Everybody.World) harness creativity of consumers to develop designs
Threadless holds ongoing design competitions where consumers submit T-shirt designs scored online; winning designs made available for sale
Consumers more inclined to become brand advocates, persuade friends and family to purchase product they helped create leading to powerful word-of-mouth
Brand acquires product innovation input with minimal payment to contributor
Growth of crowdsourcing parallels growth of freelance workforce (grown three times faster than US workforce since 2014)
Customer-centric practices may have better chance at success; two-way communication may strengthen relationship between brand and consumer
Higher satisfaction and strengthened relationships may contribute to customer loyalty, accelerate adoption of brand’s innovations

Artificial Intelligence (AI):

Both mass customization and crowdsourcing depend on direct human input; AI allows consumer to contribute indirectly through providing personal information
AI computer software synthesizes information to come up with design innovations; mimics human intelligence and ability
Algorithms and data used to perform predictive analytics or propensity modeling—use of AI to predict behavior
Major brands (Nike, Lucky Brand, Home Depot) depend heavily on this technology
Stitch Fix employs AI to synthesize data about past product preferences to determine what should be sent in next subscription box
Stitch Fix also uses AI to “identify trends and styles missing from inventory and suggest new designs”
Google partnered with Zalando in Project Muse: AI project explored what fashion experts preferred, used information to create designs; within month created 40,000+ fashion designs
AI project Deep Vogue took second place overall at International Fashion Design Innovation competition in China
Use of AI in development of fashion product innovations in infancy but firms wedded to building capability
With time, AI likely play more important role in creating fashion innovations compatible with consumer preferences, may accelerate innovation adoption

Digital Technology Facilitating Opinion Leadership and Innovation Diffusion

Consumers are digital content creators exercising opinion leadership:

Growing number use technology to create content showcasing and evaluating products and brands
66% of those surveyed agreed they’d want more ways to share insights and feedback with favorite brands
Content creators disseminate information through blogs, social networking sites, unauthorized websites, third-party product review sites, product commercials
Growing number of consumers looking to peers rather than traditional advertising sources for product information and advice
Information and opinions derived from social media significant factor in consumer buying decisions
Blogs: Websites containing ongoing personal commentary on products or topics contributed by experts rather than advertisers
Influencers: Bloggers/vloggers cultivated sizable following of viewers; include media stars, fashion industry professionals

Fashion Industry Recognition of Influencer Power:

Fashion brands partner with influencers in various ways
Influencers regularly receive invitations to fashion week shows, receive products hoping for positive reviews
Brands promote influencer’s curated items on brand’s site
Amazon Influencer Program enables influencers to drive consumers from social media directly to dedicated Amazon storefront
Amazon selling influencer-designed goods through The Drop (limited-edition assortments designed by global influencers with selection of always-available essential pieces)
Opinion leadership of influencers may increase interest in particular innovations and adoption because innovations have stamp of approval from trusted and admired influencer

Unauthorized Websites and Product Reviews:

Focus on one firm or brand; provide place for detractors or admirers to gather information, chastise or praise company/brand
Product reviews may be simple as content typed in text box; many consumers create own product commercials facilitated by readily available hardware and software
Product commercials have impact because of global distribution through social media
Readily available information about wide range of product innovations enriches consumer evaluation, facilitates evaluation stage of innovation adoption

Brand-Sponsored Social Networking Sites:

Consumer-created content will become standard way consumers interact with shopping sites
Most fashion brands have social network presence to build closer connection with consumer, foster brand loyalty
Provide consumers with additional outlet for unbiased product reviews
Consumers interact with likeminded individuals and brand representatives
Consumer can receive quick response to question or learn about special offers, events, latest innovation
Firms should use social media to uncover what consumers invested in brand think; understanding if innovation headed for success or failure
These various forms of dialog accelerate dissemination of information, build sense of trust and connectedness among consumers and with brand during evaluation stage
May facilitate diffusion of innovation among consumers

Benefits for Product Developers:

Product developers can glean valuable insight from consumer-created information to assess acceptance of latest fashion trends
May lower risk of missing trends when creating new products
Consumer-created content can be source of inspiration for design innovations, provide information about design problems
Through product commercials, developers can glean information about adoption stage or how customer actually uses or wears product
Can provide insight into design features or product combinations to build into next innovation

Validity Concerns:

Issues of validity must be considered: Are reviews or product information truly unbiased? What’s demographic makeup of reviewers?
May not be sure of number of raters on site, how well raters represent target market
Nothing stops unscrupulous firm employees from posing as consumers providing high ratings
Wise firm understands consumers savvy; once trust broken, very hard to regain
Triangulation of data should be performed—checking whether information from consumer-created content agrees with information from other firm-generated sources

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